Windows Phone Thoughts - Daily News, Views, Rants and Raves

I read an email on the Mobius list where the idea was that because consumers have already adopted the iPhone in droves, they won't be interested in Windows phone 7 came out. Here was my response (with some added thoughts).

Consumers are fickle creatures; they change their minds all the time when it comes to phone contract renewal time. HOWEVER...I wonder if "app lock-in" will play a role in moving to other platforms? As in, you're Joe Smith and you have an iPhone and you've spent $200 on apps over your two year contract...that app investment, will it make you feel like you need to stay with your iPhone even if there's another phone you like more? I wonder...

The reality is, of course, that the majority of users don't yet have smartphones - so in that sense the market is wide open - yet I think the biggest adoption blocker remains the costs of data plans. If you want your phone to do more than make calls, sent texts, and MMS, you're increasing the monthly outlay by a fair bit - especially if you're a light phone user with a small minutes plan, it can easily double the monthly cost of your phone bill (it does in my case). Until the carriers start to want all these people on their data networks, I think data plans will remain expensive, and the bulk of the population will stay away.

"In the past, the industry has been hard-pressed to find a real competitor to the iPhone. Several "iPhone killers" have come along, including the Palm Pre and BlackBerry Storm, but both devices have failed to live up to Apple's product on any level. Even Android-based devices like the Nexus One have come close but can't quite attract the kind of attention the iPhone does...But there is a strong possibility that Microsoft's newly announced Windows Phone 7 Series will change that."

eWeek weighs in on the merits of the upcoming Windows Phone 7 Series, specifically comparing it against the iPhone. Some of the points are a little weak in my view (a sense of urgency? really?), but there's always room for debate. I think it's premature to start discussing this seriously until we know more on what restrictions developers have to work under - I'm not very happy with what I've heard so far - but then speculation is half the fun. What do you guys think? Is eWeek making sense to you, or are they somewhere off in la-la land?

The chart says it all - ChangeWave's report on its survey of smartphone users barely even mentions Windows Mobile, and even Palm's Web OS gets more love. The big news is the surge of interest in Android (now coming up to version 2.0) which is shaping up to be the new major competitor to Apple's iPhone. Where, oh where, is Windows Mobile 7?

"If our kindergarten skills haven't failed us, then this data shows iPhone usage surpassing the once mighty Windows Mobile OS for the very first time. Unfortunately for Microsoft, Google's Android OS is set to accelerate significantly by the time the February 2010 data rolls in as is WebOS just as soon as Palm can bring its fledgling OS to Verizon's subscriber base."

Well, it was on the cards and had to happen sooner or later - Windows Mobile is now third in terms of actual handsets in consumer hands in the US, with just 7.1 million units compared to Apple's 8.9 million and RIM's 14.9 million. I'll forbear to comment on the obvious implications for Microsoft. Read the original FierceDeveloper scoop here and the press release from comScore here (incidentally, comScore's actual tagline focused more on Android's gains rather than Apple's). The real kickers are some of the supplementary survey questions that were published in the press release - out of the thirteen specifically mentioned handsets most users were planning to purchase, only one was a Windows Mobile device (AT&T Tilt), at just 2% of respondents. The media consumption results are also pretty damning. Where, oh where, is WM7?

"For many (if not most) iPhone developers, the App Store's overheated competition and bloated inventory have led to scorched-earth pricing that makes it virtually impossible to parlay mobile development into a valid for-profit business model without turning to subscriptions or in-app advertising.... "I know, 99 cents is interesting -- yes, consumers like to pay 99 cents for applications," admits Microsoft's Loke Uei, "but 99 cents, come on, I think your app is worth more than that."

The Apple iPhone App store has been one of the things that has radically changed the mobile phone market, but as it grew to 50,000 apps or so, it was pretty obvious that there is just some crap in there. Sometimes less is more and a well maintained library is better and more useful than one that just has everything you can possibly throw in it. Microsoft apparently feels the same way and is going to try and keep the menu respectable and manageable.

Do you think 99 cents is ok for the majority of apps, or should Microsoft encourage more reasonable price structures that would allow developers to make some money and make it worth their time to spend more energy on improving their apps.

"Never mind the cut and paste. Never mind the picture messaging, or all the other stuff that should have been in iPhone 1.0. Never mind the new payment methods that will shake up the mobile shopping marketplace. The most radical thing Apple said at the iPhone 3.0 software release was: "The upgrade will be available for free, this summer, to all iPhone owners." Why can't any other smart phone vendors do this?"

My fellow Mobius alumni Sascha Segan nails Microsoft and RIM to the wall in his article, and he's 100% right. There are many reasons why I prefer Windows Mobile to the iPhone, but I'll give credit where credit is due: Apple's ability to easily upgrade the phones of its users is exactly the way things should work, and it makes the rest of the industry, especially Microsoft, look ridiculous in comparison. Read more...

"Microsoft has made some stumbles in the mobile world, but a strategy shift made more than a year ago will soon pay dividends, the company's top Windows Mobile executive said in an interview with CNET News. Andy Lees, the executive brought over from the server unit a year ago, said that Microsoft's efforts to make sure that its mobile software could run on a wide range of phones resulted in an operating system that failed to take advantage of advances in hardware. "We aimed to go for a lower common denominator," Lees said. Microsoft was also limited by the origins of Windows Mobile, which was developed to power handheld computers that neither connected to a network nor handled voice. "We started out when we were in PDAs (personal digital assistants) and then a phone got strapped to the back of the PDA," Lees said. The company also failed to recognize that phones--even those that were used for business--were still as much personal as they were professional."

The first four paragraphs of the CNET/ZDNet article accurately highlight some of Windows Mobile's flaws, and why the once-venerable smartphone operating system, at times, appears feeble next to relative newcomers, iPhone OS, Android, and webOS. But it's not all doom and gloom for Microsoft. According to Andy Lees, we'll see some breakthroughs over the next 18 months, with the first set expected as soon as mid-February as Microsoft takes the stage at MWC. Lees hinted at an increased reliance on the cloud, the need to improve the core of Windows Mobile in order to keep up with the competition, and a closer relationship with OEMs (which we can only hope translates to more frequent and more consistent updates for all consumers).

Is this the right approach? Sound off in this thread.

Omnia fever has hit Australia. Bus stops, billboards, newspapers... pick one and there's a good chance an Omnia ad is plastered all over it. Take, for example, an ad in today's paper that caught my eye; it advertised the availability of the Omnia on Optus for a mere $0 on a $49 cap plan. Other carriers such as Vodafone, Virgin Mobile, and 3 are also selling the device on similar plans. And then there are the usual online and brick & mortar stores that sell the device standalone. One thing's for certain: with this widespread availability and constant advertising, Samsung is doing their best to give residents of the country with the highest number of authorized iPhone carriers something else to talk about.

"Recently it was revealed that the newest version of Microsoft's mobile operating system, Windows Mobile 7.0, would be delayed until as late as 2010. The updated version, which the company's partners had reportedly been hoping to have by early 2009, was aimed at giving Microsoft a bigger presence on the mobile stage. But delay or no delay, I don't think it would have been enough. With competition from a resurgent BlackBerry platform from Research in Motion, Apple's iPhone and most importantly, the Google Phone platform (I will analyze Nokia's Symbian platform in a separate post at a later date), Microsoft's mobile platform is facing its toughest environment yet."

Despite the title of this article I ran across on CNN today, Why Windows Mobile is in Trouble, it is not the usual doom and gloom scenario that appears to be popping up in the Internet consciousness as of late regarding Windows Mobile. Om Malik goes on to write a fantastic piece on how Microsoft is now more than ever fighting an uphill battle in the mobile handset world in a means to stay relevant in the consumers' eyes, especially with the release of Google's new Android platform which Malik describes as "Windows Mobile done right". This article also quoted VentureBeat in stating that we might not even see new Windows Mobile handsets until 2010! Read more...

"...Dare I say, Windows Mobile is not Unstable, it’s the applications we flood the devices with. Bashing Microsoft for other developer’s applications is something that has just become the 'cool thing to do', I guess. Windows Mobile is not perfect, but it’s not the beast many want us to believe. Apple has 3rd party applications now. Nice right? Well, iPhone owners are complaining of lockups and having to reset. It could never be Apple’s fault though, it’s got to be the applications. Bad developers, bad apps, it could never be Apple’s fault. So here we are, Apple iPhone locks up… Bad App. Windows Mobile Phone locks up, Bad Microsoft. Hmmm… Ok. Let’s talk about the iPhone shall we?"

I had a little internal battle with myself before releasing this. On one hand I am incredibly sick and tired of the constant barrage of articles comparing the iPhone to Windows Mobile. At the end of the day their differences and user experiences are so unique that it is pretty much useless to try and draw comparisons. These devices were designed from the ground up for completely different customer bases mean Windows Mobile will always be superior to the iPhone when it comes to the business side of things and the iPhone will always outshine Windows Mobile when it comes to user interface.

Chris from Mobility Site does bring up an interesting point though. With the release of the new iPhone and application store there appears to be larger than average complaints from users about device lockups, hard resets, bricking from other the air application updates, and even the camera distorting images - it looks as if Apple's little device that could is starting to experience some big boy growing pains like all the other mobile smartphone operating systems. So what do you guys think, are these all just isolated incidents or are any of you iPhone users experiencing any of these issues?

"By now, we're well aware that Apple can make apps vanish without a trace (or explanation) from the App Store. But Jonathan Zdziarsi, the author of iPhone Forensics, says that Apple can actually remotely disable apps installed on your iPhone. Apparently, there's a blacklist URL in the iPhone's OS that he says "suggests that the iPhone calls home once in a while to find out what applications it should turn off."

So while Apple hasn't disabled anything they don't like to date (such as NetShare), this suggests that there are ways that Big Fruity can take you down a notch or two application wise (yea yea, I know - it's meant to disable malware... but that doesn't limit it to just malware!).

But then again, cool people respect Apple's authority and should be alright with this, right? As far as the Windows Mobile world goes, Microsoft can't really even get updates out in an organized fashion, so for better or worse, I doubt they'd be up to this type of potential control. (Microsoft: The Less Evil and More Disorganized company compared to Apple... :) )

"Companies -- lots of them -- are still buying Windows Mobile smart phones, and Microsoft Corp. doesn't want to let iPhone mania make them forget. During Microsoft's most recent fiscal year, 325 enterprises purchased at least 500 Windows Mobile phones, with many buying many more, said Scott Rockfeld, group products manager for the mobile communications business at Microsoft, in a Friday interview. "

With all of the hype surrounding the iPhone 2.0 launch recently, which includes some capabilities to synchronize against some of your Exchange data directly with the server, Microsoft doesn't want IT pros to lose sight of the fact that Windows Mobile is still very big in business, although still behind RIM's popular Blackberry platform. Even at that, there are a lot of companies with RIM's BES server that use Windows Mobile devices, and over 100 are decommissioning their BES server. The article also mentioned one company buying 10,000 Windows Mobile devices but wouldn't give the name of the company, speculating only that it might be Wal-Mart, the world's largest private employer.

More eye-candy for you, courtesy of the folks at portalPPC.com, who have unboxed and compared the HTC Touch Diamond, Samsung Omnia, and Apple's iPhone 3G. Click for a look, and try not to drool too much.

"If you thought you were annoyed when one of the big wireless carriers locked up a phone you were after, you have no idea how frustrated small and rural wireless carriers are -- they've just filed a petition with FCC seeking to ban the practice. The 80 companies in the Rural Cellular Association serve small markets not well-covered by the big guys, like parts of New Mexico, Idaho, Kansas, Maine, North Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming, and they say that carrier exclusivity deals not affect their bottom line, but also deprive consumers of desirable phones like the iPhone and upcoming Blackberry Bold. They've actually got a pretty good point: lots of rural customers can't purchase and use an iPhone without technically breaking the AT&T service agreement. We'll see how this one goes -- although we'd love nothing more than to use any phone we wanted on any carrier, there are plenty of reasons it won't happen, and exclusivity is the easiest way for carriers to differentiate themselves to consumers."



As a consumer I really hope that in the coming years we start to see an end to all of the exclusivity contracts. I can understand them to a point but in the case of the iPhone, as mentioned above, was five years really necessary? Also I think the iPhone is a horrible example of a handset to use an example here since a lot of the rural carriers I can think of off the top of my head all run off of CDMA networks and the iPhone is a GSM and soon to be HSDPA handset. Even if the exclusivity deal was not in place, do you really expect Apple to make a CDMA version just to be fair to the little guys? A lot of high-end handsets have trouble selling in densely populated areas and if there is not enough customer demand to convince the big five to open shops in those rural areas, what makes the little carriers think they could even secure those fancy handsets in the first place?

"Our brethren over at Engadget Chinese had the chance to size-up HTC's new Windows Mobile 6.1 Touch Diamond with Apple's iPhone this morning in Taiwan. We have to admit, HTC's CEO was dead-on when he claimed that the Diamond's "not too big, not too small" after seeing it side-by-side with Microsoft's left-coast nemesis."



You've all seen the Touch Diamond (which, by the way, has now received the FCC's tick of approval) in renderings. Now, see it in the flesh. Here it is next to the iPhone. The Touch Diamond is quite a bit smaller, although fortunately, not too small that you can't hold it without losing it. How will it compare with the next-generation iPhone? I guess we'll find out in the weeks ahead.

"CUPERTINO, California—April 1, 2008—Apple® today announced additional enhancements to its iPhone™ 2.0 software. The upcoming iPhone 2.0 software release will contain Boot Camp for iPhone. Similar to Boot Camp for the desktop version of OSX, Boot Camp for iPhone allows users the freedom to choose between a variety of operating systems for their iPhone. This opens up the iPhone to developers wanting to create software in the operating system they prefer, and allows users the freedom to select the environment they feel comfortable with on a day-to-day basis, while still allowing Apple to supply the top-notch iPhone platform. 'We’re excited to give our users and developers the freedom to select the best environment for their needs,' said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO. 'The iPhone’s hardware is the best mobile platform available, and combined with its revolutionary Multi-Touch interface, we believe this will create a surge in software development for the iPhone."


This is a pretty amazing announcement from Apple! Typically Apple likes to retain total control over their platforms and user interfaces, but Boot Camp for iPhone potentially means we could see Windows Mobile on the iPhone platform. I'm not sure that's the best OS for the hardware, but it at least gives people more options, which is always a good thing, right? So which OS will you choose to run on your iPhone?

"The Redmond, Wash.-based software giant is already the largest software developer for Apple's Mac platform outside of the Mac maker itself, with Fortune's Big Tech blog estimating that its Mac Business Unit generates revenues in excess of $350 million and profits of over $200 million each year. Add to that the firm's expertise in its proprietary Exchange email protocols and business email systems, and it's almost a certainty that Microsoft will be among those bearing fresh wares for Apple's iPhone and iPod touch a bit later this year, Tom Gibbons, corporate vice president of Microsoft's Specialized Devices and Applications Group, told the business publication. "We do have experience with that environment, and that gives us confidence to be able to do something," he said. "The key question is, what is the value that we need to bring?" Gibbons' team of Mac developers, which actually resides in Mountain View, Calif., just a few miles from Apple's headquarters in Cupertino, is reportedly weighing its most viable options for an initial native iPhone application, which appears as if it will fall within the Office family of productivity applications."



It wasn't too long ago that Apple announced Exchange support for the iPhone and iPod touch. The implications here have yet to be seen, but come June, we'll likely see the two devices consume a reasonable chunk of Windows Mobile's market share. What about Office? It's always been one of Windows Mobile's biggest selling points. The iPhone and iPod touch lack it, but that may soon change, and if it does, it has the potential to be huge. Add in Tellme and a host of other applications and Microsoft will need to find new ways to make Windows Mobile as popular as it once was.