Windows Phone Thoughts: Mobile Games to Outsell Console Games in 2006?

"In a speech delivered at the Leipzig GC Developer Conference, I-play's Stephane Labrunie has declared that mobile gaming is set to overtake console gaming by the end of the year. According to Labrunie, mobile gaming "is the definition of a true mass market; it's not a niche market, as is console gaming." To support this argument, Labrunie pointed to the fact that 48 per cent of mobile gamers are female, while 58 per cent are aged between 18 and 34. Although he conceded that the market "will take time to grow", Labrunie stated that "This market will sell more games on mobile than traditional consoles in 2006." He went on to quote figures which forecast sales of 1.8 billion game-enabled handsets by 2008. By 2010, the number of paid downloads per year is set to reach 1.7 billion, while gross revenues will rise to US$ 5.9 billion."

Well, there's no doubt that the number of mobile devices in the market far outweighs the number of consoles. Fact is, though, not all mobile device users play games. Heck, some don't even know they can play games. I don't doubt the potential of the mobile gaming market, but I just feel Labrunie has his hopes up a little too high with his "2006" prediction. What do you think? Do PDAmill, Astraware, et al. have a reason to grin this year? Note that the article discusses game sales, not general game downloads (so freeware doesn't really count).