Wednesday, June 11, 2003
Climbing a Mountain Takes Time
Posted by Andy Sjostrom in "THOUGHT" @ 01:39 AM
We're on a long running mountain climbing expedition. It's about endurance and sometimes looking down realizing the long way we have already come is important. Let me explain!
When Microsoft released Windows NT 3.1 in August 1993 they said they had started a mountain climbing expedition. The long term goal was to become the major player in server and network operating systems. I even have a Swiss Army Knife from those days branded: "Windows NT Expedition". August 1993 is ten years ago, and Microsoft has become a major player, but still has ways to go to become the major player. Competition is fierce and Linux has proven itself to be a potent competitor. Even in other markets such as word processing and spreadsheets, progress has not been a simple matter of course. Climbing a mountain takes time.
In my opinion, Microsoft's real bet on mobile devices was placed in April 2000 when the Pocket PC was launched. I remember how much I anticipated the sales figures for the first quarter. I believed we would see a simple, fierce and efficient knock out. The knock out didn't happen. Three years after the launch, I can still in weak moments ask myself unpatiently why things are taking so long. I can wonder why innovation doesn't seem to happen as quickly as I'd want, why competition is let to close in, why sales isn't doing better. Jeff Kirvin recently wrote an article called "Little Orphan Pocket PC" where he concludes:
"Basically, it's starting to look like Pocket PC will be Microsoft's version of the Apple Newton. One of the guys in my writer's group still uses his Newton today, but he'll admit that selection and support aren't what they were before Apple abandoned the platform. Are Pocket PC users setting themselves up for a similar future?"
In February 2002, I asked myself much the same question in the articles "What if..." and "Innovate or get hit on the head". While I still think that Microsoft needs to continue innovating faster and establishing itself as the market leader, it's important to remember that climbing a mountain takes time. Derek Brown (Microsoft) responds to Jeff's article and briefly describes the expedition thus far. In April 2000, there were three manufacturers with as close to zero market share as you can get. In some markets, Pocket PCs have broken 50 percent market share, world wide 30 and some percent. The Pocket PC Phone Edition is sold by cell phone carriers around the world. Large companies standardize on Pocket PCs and the platform attracts a significant number of developers and independent software vendors. The Smartphone platform is closely related to the Pocket PC platform and the success of one strengthens the other. The latest Smarthpone, MiTAC Mio 8380 Smartphone was released yesterday and will be available in China this month and Taiwan in mid-July. Orange, TMN, TeliaSonera, AIS, SMART Communications, and CECT are just some of the carriers currently selling Smartphones. Verizon Wireless, AT&T and T-Mobile are committed to launching in the near future.
All this, and more, in three years. A new Pocket PC version is around the corner. We can expect to see some wishes to come true and some not. Regardless of what the new version delivers, it is still just one of many steps to go to reach the top of the mountain. Climbing a mountain takes time.
When Microsoft released Windows NT 3.1 in August 1993 they said they had started a mountain climbing expedition. The long term goal was to become the major player in server and network operating systems. I even have a Swiss Army Knife from those days branded: "Windows NT Expedition". August 1993 is ten years ago, and Microsoft has become a major player, but still has ways to go to become the major player. Competition is fierce and Linux has proven itself to be a potent competitor. Even in other markets such as word processing and spreadsheets, progress has not been a simple matter of course. Climbing a mountain takes time.
In my opinion, Microsoft's real bet on mobile devices was placed in April 2000 when the Pocket PC was launched. I remember how much I anticipated the sales figures for the first quarter. I believed we would see a simple, fierce and efficient knock out. The knock out didn't happen. Three years after the launch, I can still in weak moments ask myself unpatiently why things are taking so long. I can wonder why innovation doesn't seem to happen as quickly as I'd want, why competition is let to close in, why sales isn't doing better. Jeff Kirvin recently wrote an article called "Little Orphan Pocket PC" where he concludes:
"Basically, it's starting to look like Pocket PC will be Microsoft's version of the Apple Newton. One of the guys in my writer's group still uses his Newton today, but he'll admit that selection and support aren't what they were before Apple abandoned the platform. Are Pocket PC users setting themselves up for a similar future?"
In February 2002, I asked myself much the same question in the articles "What if..." and "Innovate or get hit on the head". While I still think that Microsoft needs to continue innovating faster and establishing itself as the market leader, it's important to remember that climbing a mountain takes time. Derek Brown (Microsoft) responds to Jeff's article and briefly describes the expedition thus far. In April 2000, there were three manufacturers with as close to zero market share as you can get. In some markets, Pocket PCs have broken 50 percent market share, world wide 30 and some percent. The Pocket PC Phone Edition is sold by cell phone carriers around the world. Large companies standardize on Pocket PCs and the platform attracts a significant number of developers and independent software vendors. The Smartphone platform is closely related to the Pocket PC platform and the success of one strengthens the other. The latest Smarthpone, MiTAC Mio 8380 Smartphone was released yesterday and will be available in China this month and Taiwan in mid-July. Orange, TMN, TeliaSonera, AIS, SMART Communications, and CECT are just some of the carriers currently selling Smartphones. Verizon Wireless, AT&T and T-Mobile are committed to launching in the near future.
All this, and more, in three years. A new Pocket PC version is around the corner. We can expect to see some wishes to come true and some not. Regardless of what the new version delivers, it is still just one of many steps to go to reach the top of the mountain. Climbing a mountain takes time.
