Thursday, January 2, 2003
Bob's Predictions for 2003
Posted by Jason Dunn in "ARTICLE" @ 06:50 PM
The always entertaining Robert X. Cringley talks about his predictions for 2003, but first he looks at his predictions from last year - not bad Bob, not bad at all!
"I said that Microsoft would continue to expand .NET (correct), that XML would be the tool for that expansion (correct) and that KnowNow would be the big XML success story (not yet anyway -- wrong). I said there would be a slow resurgence of venture capital (correct) and that would lead to a rise in the number of Initial Public Offerings (well, there was an increase, but it wasn't enough to count -- wrong). I said that security technology would be a big deal (correct), but that rich media wouldn't be (correct again). I said that 2002 would be a pivotal year for broadband, whatever "pivotal" means (I don't think it was -- wrong). I said that Microsoft would do lots of deals as it attempted to diversify a bit (correct) and that 2002 would be a good year for Cisco Systems (you may not think so, but the stock is up 30 percent, market share has increased and gross profit margins are the highest ever -- correct). That is seven correct and three incorrect predictions, maintaining my historic average of 70 percent right. Whew!"
In pasting in the above quote, I just realized that Mr. Robert X. Cringely puts a double-space after each period. Bob, Bob, Bob...we're not in the typewriter age anymore brother! :lol: Actually, I remember having quite a heated discussion about this last year with some Thoughts readers - so it's time for a poll!
"I said that Microsoft would continue to expand .NET (correct), that XML would be the tool for that expansion (correct) and that KnowNow would be the big XML success story (not yet anyway -- wrong). I said there would be a slow resurgence of venture capital (correct) and that would lead to a rise in the number of Initial Public Offerings (well, there was an increase, but it wasn't enough to count -- wrong). I said that security technology would be a big deal (correct), but that rich media wouldn't be (correct again). I said that 2002 would be a pivotal year for broadband, whatever "pivotal" means (I don't think it was -- wrong). I said that Microsoft would do lots of deals as it attempted to diversify a bit (correct) and that 2002 would be a good year for Cisco Systems (you may not think so, but the stock is up 30 percent, market share has increased and gross profit margins are the highest ever -- correct). That is seven correct and three incorrect predictions, maintaining my historic average of 70 percent right. Whew!"
In pasting in the above quote, I just realized that Mr. Robert X. Cringely puts a double-space after each period. Bob, Bob, Bob...we're not in the typewriter age anymore brother! :lol: Actually, I remember having quite a heated discussion about this last year with some Thoughts readers - so it's time for a poll!
