Wednesday, August 7, 2002
What did I tell ya!?
Posted by Andy Sjostrom in "OFF-TOPIC" @ 05:18 AM
The carrier Orange wishes to break the promise made to the government to meet end-2003 deadline for Swedish 3G rollout, and instead extend the deadline two or three years. Remember the crazy 3G (next generation wide area wireless network) auctions and beauty contests a couple of years ago? Carriers either paid governments billions of dollars or promised governments to build appropriate infrastructure and offer 3G services within a given time period for the license to offer 3G services.
In Sweden we had a beauty contest. The carriers that promised to deliver best and fastest won the licenses. The astonishing outcome was that Telia, the biggest carrier, did not win a license. The market reacted negatively and so did analysts. I did not. On January the 5th, 2001, I wrote:
"The coverage and infrastructure that the license winners promise will never (ie NEVER) be profitable. The stock holders of Telia should therefore rejoice! Give Telia 12-18 months and we will see who says: What did I tell ya!?
"So only two losers remain:
• License winners that either will stand as liars or as poor
• Consumers that once again will be severely dissapointed from broken promises and carriers with no means to offer attractive offers."
OK. Here we go: what did I tell ya!?
I understand Orange, though. We won't have 3G devices or services, let alone real wireless Internet access en masse at the end of 2003. It would only be foolish to bind capital into infrastructure that can't or won't be used for years. But I wonder why, oh why, some carriers keep over hyping and under delivering...
In Sweden we had a beauty contest. The carriers that promised to deliver best and fastest won the licenses. The astonishing outcome was that Telia, the biggest carrier, did not win a license. The market reacted negatively and so did analysts. I did not. On January the 5th, 2001, I wrote:
"The coverage and infrastructure that the license winners promise will never (ie NEVER) be profitable. The stock holders of Telia should therefore rejoice! Give Telia 12-18 months and we will see who says: What did I tell ya!?
"So only two losers remain:
• License winners that either will stand as liars or as poor
• Consumers that once again will be severely dissapointed from broken promises and carriers with no means to offer attractive offers."
OK. Here we go: what did I tell ya!?
I understand Orange, though. We won't have 3G devices or services, let alone real wireless Internet access en masse at the end of 2003. It would only be foolish to bind capital into infrastructure that can't or won't be used for years. But I wonder why, oh why, some carriers keep over hyping and under delivering...
