Monday, April 8, 2002
Myopic Thinking
Posted by Jason Dunn in "THOUGHT" @ 05:33 PM
http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=7141#7141
I was reading the comments to Andy's last post, and my reply turned into a front-page-worthy rant. Make sure you read Andy's post and the comments or this won't make as much sense.
Does anyone REALLY think in ten years we'll have both PDAs and cell phones? No way. We'll have a device that will let us communicate with others, be it voice, text messages, or video. The form factor is an unknown (I personally think it will be smaller than a Pocket PC but bigger than a current cell phone), but the evolution towards a unified device is occurring, and I believe it will win out in the end over single-function devices.
Right now the all-in-one solutions are clumsy, first generation units that have major sacrifices on both sides (Pocket PC 2002 Phone Edition included). Give it a few generations, and the concept of a phone that only does calls will be as passe as a PDA that only does PIM. The market as a whole has to evolve, but look back at the way cell phone use went. Ten years ago, if I would have said "In ten years, everyone will be using cell phones, even ten year old kids!" I would have been laughed at. In the early 90's, cell phones were clunky, had horrible battery life, spit out enough radiation to kill a horse, and were very expensive. Why on earth would "everyone" be using them? Only the "elite" had them - people who were willing to put up with the costs and sacrifices of owning one.
Society evolves, and what we value changes over time - right now being in touch 24/7 is something we not only value, it's something we thrive upon (I know some people who don't even have land lines). Once cell phones hit critical mass with enough people having them (so there were people you knew you could call), at the right price point, the right size/battery life, and most important of all the right pricing plan from carriers, use exploded. Now it's odd to NOT find someone who doesn't have a cell phone.
Right now, wireless PDAs are clunky, have horrible battery life, spit out enough radiation to kill a horse, and are very expensive. Only the digital elite have PDAs - and we put up with sacrifices and high costs to own them. They're not very common in most social circles. See a pattern here? If you look at the market now, the average user doesn't need or want a "smart" phone - they're focused on voice communication. But guess what? In ten years, the fifteen year old kid who lives and breathes email, chat, and web is twenty-five, and he doesn't give up digital lifestyle when he's on the move . It doesn't matter if he's a corporate lawyer or working at a 7-11 - it's part of his lifestyle, and he'll grow up expecting to have devices that let him continue that lifestyle.
"But Jason, all people want to do is talk." Sure, NOW that's all they want to do - but that's the same concept that led Palm to think that people would only ever want black and white PIM. Revolutionary devices are rare - it will take years for the wireless PDA and cell phone to merge into a device that people will want and use constantly. Until that happens, we get to enjoy watching it all unfold before our eyes - no one is going to get it right on the first try, but to assume that the evolution we're seeing is a dead end is naive.
I was reading the comments to Andy's last post, and my reply turned into a front-page-worthy rant. Make sure you read Andy's post and the comments or this won't make as much sense.
Does anyone REALLY think in ten years we'll have both PDAs and cell phones? No way. We'll have a device that will let us communicate with others, be it voice, text messages, or video. The form factor is an unknown (I personally think it will be smaller than a Pocket PC but bigger than a current cell phone), but the evolution towards a unified device is occurring, and I believe it will win out in the end over single-function devices.
Right now the all-in-one solutions are clumsy, first generation units that have major sacrifices on both sides (Pocket PC 2002 Phone Edition included). Give it a few generations, and the concept of a phone that only does calls will be as passe as a PDA that only does PIM. The market as a whole has to evolve, but look back at the way cell phone use went. Ten years ago, if I would have said "In ten years, everyone will be using cell phones, even ten year old kids!" I would have been laughed at. In the early 90's, cell phones were clunky, had horrible battery life, spit out enough radiation to kill a horse, and were very expensive. Why on earth would "everyone" be using them? Only the "elite" had them - people who were willing to put up with the costs and sacrifices of owning one.
Society evolves, and what we value changes over time - right now being in touch 24/7 is something we not only value, it's something we thrive upon (I know some people who don't even have land lines). Once cell phones hit critical mass with enough people having them (so there were people you knew you could call), at the right price point, the right size/battery life, and most important of all the right pricing plan from carriers, use exploded. Now it's odd to NOT find someone who doesn't have a cell phone.
Right now, wireless PDAs are clunky, have horrible battery life, spit out enough radiation to kill a horse, and are very expensive. Only the digital elite have PDAs - and we put up with sacrifices and high costs to own them. They're not very common in most social circles. See a pattern here? If you look at the market now, the average user doesn't need or want a "smart" phone - they're focused on voice communication. But guess what? In ten years, the fifteen year old kid who lives and breathes email, chat, and web is twenty-five, and he doesn't give up digital lifestyle when he's on the move . It doesn't matter if he's a corporate lawyer or working at a 7-11 - it's part of his lifestyle, and he'll grow up expecting to have devices that let him continue that lifestyle.
"But Jason, all people want to do is talk." Sure, NOW that's all they want to do - but that's the same concept that led Palm to think that people would only ever want black and white PIM. Revolutionary devices are rare - it will take years for the wireless PDA and cell phone to merge into a device that people will want and use constantly. Until that happens, we get to enjoy watching it all unfold before our eyes - no one is going to get it right on the first try, but to assume that the evolution we're seeing is a dead end is naive.
