Thursday, February 28, 2002
Roadkill
Posted by Ed Hansberry in "ARTICLE" @ 04:33 PM
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nf/20020228/tc_nf/16550
"Is Palm the Next Netscape?" This doesn't take a fine tuned crystal ball to see where this is going. PalmOS had well over 80% market share just a few short years ago and the Palm-Sized PC was the laughingstock of the PDA world. The problem is people wrote off MS because the UI was wrong. They weren't paying any attention to what was right with the devices. Multitasking, easy to understand file system, application compatibility with desktop PC's, multimedia, color screens, etc. Next step - April 19, 2000 - Pocket PC's launch. In under 24 months, the Pocket PC market share jumped to 22% while PalmOS dropped to 57% while the rest of the market was flooded with dozens of different and non-compatible devices including many proprietary devices in China.
Palm is fighting back to be sure, but OS 5 isn't it folks. Every time a question came up about OS5 in every article I've read about PalmSource 2002, the answer was basically "well, the hooks are there but it will really be the next OS revision that brings that to the platform." So, we are looking at 2003 or 2004. Most consider OS5 an ported OS4 to ARM, at least that is what the user will experience even if the developers will see some of those "hooks." Well, as the article above puts it - "But OS 5 may not be big enough to keep Microsoft boxed in. 'I'm not so sure that this effort's going to completely help them repel Microsoft.'"
Now, the battle isn't over by any means. MS is not the de facto winner anymore than Palm is the de facto loser. Both platforms have strengths, yet Microsoft is best when they are in 2nd place. Pocket PC 2000 was only the beginning. MS is developing the Pocket PC at a fast pace. There were more changes and updates to Pocket PC 2002 than Palm has done since 1996, and it isn't because the Pocket PC 2000 OS was missing so much. In 2000 when the original PPC was launched, VPN's were not as common, wireless was not as common, DRM5 in Reader didn't exist, etc. Sure, there were fixes, but that is what goes on with updates. Look at Palm's update notes. Other than vibrating alarms and 2-3 other things, OS4 is nothing but a 3.5 bug fix, and none if it is really 2 versions ahead of the 4 year old OS2.
Be assured that the Pocket PC team at Microsoft is diligently working on the next version of the Pocket PC. Issues like more wireless possibilities, security, user interaction, application compatibility, etc. All being looked over with a fine tooth comb. Microsoft has the advantage here because they are not playing catch-up with features, and because the Pocket PC has always been a fully 32bit OS, all of the compatibility issues Palm is having to contend with in OS5 are not nearly as much of a problem for Microsoft as they are for Palm. OS5 is Palm's transition OS, and that is a painful experience. Just look at Win95/98/ME.
Microsoft also has a tighter control over the hardware specs. This is great news for developers. They know a speaker is there. They know the device is running 240X320. They know there is a Soft Input Panel. They know RTF libraries will be there to use. They know a powerful communication manager is there. Palm on the other hand is actually encouraging diversity. Maybe 160X160, maybe 320X320, maybe 240X320. Maybe there is a SIP, maybe not. Might have a microphone. Might not. Speaker? Your guess is as good as mine. This causes more work for developers as they have to contend with so many possibilities.
Then there is the financial situation. When you look at Palm's financial statements from the day they went public in 2000 through today, they have lost millions of dollars. Their cash reserve is very low and they keep burning millions every month. The question is, not can they turn the company around, because I don't think they are too far gone to turn it around, but can they turn it around fast enough? Before their bank account looks like my checking account, they must get profitable and cash positive. Meanwhile, MS keeps raising the bar. Terminal Server support, network file share access, SmartPhone, etc. If Palm looks in their rear view mirror, there is a huge Mack truck bearing down on them, and the letters on the mirror read "Objects are even larger than they appear." Palm had better find that long skinny pedal on the right and apply significant pressure, or become roadkill.
"Is Palm the Next Netscape?" This doesn't take a fine tuned crystal ball to see where this is going. PalmOS had well over 80% market share just a few short years ago and the Palm-Sized PC was the laughingstock of the PDA world. The problem is people wrote off MS because the UI was wrong. They weren't paying any attention to what was right with the devices. Multitasking, easy to understand file system, application compatibility with desktop PC's, multimedia, color screens, etc. Next step - April 19, 2000 - Pocket PC's launch. In under 24 months, the Pocket PC market share jumped to 22% while PalmOS dropped to 57% while the rest of the market was flooded with dozens of different and non-compatible devices including many proprietary devices in China.
Palm is fighting back to be sure, but OS 5 isn't it folks. Every time a question came up about OS5 in every article I've read about PalmSource 2002, the answer was basically "well, the hooks are there but it will really be the next OS revision that brings that to the platform." So, we are looking at 2003 or 2004. Most consider OS5 an ported OS4 to ARM, at least that is what the user will experience even if the developers will see some of those "hooks." Well, as the article above puts it - "But OS 5 may not be big enough to keep Microsoft boxed in. 'I'm not so sure that this effort's going to completely help them repel Microsoft.'"
Now, the battle isn't over by any means. MS is not the de facto winner anymore than Palm is the de facto loser. Both platforms have strengths, yet Microsoft is best when they are in 2nd place. Pocket PC 2000 was only the beginning. MS is developing the Pocket PC at a fast pace. There were more changes and updates to Pocket PC 2002 than Palm has done since 1996, and it isn't because the Pocket PC 2000 OS was missing so much. In 2000 when the original PPC was launched, VPN's were not as common, wireless was not as common, DRM5 in Reader didn't exist, etc. Sure, there were fixes, but that is what goes on with updates. Look at Palm's update notes. Other than vibrating alarms and 2-3 other things, OS4 is nothing but a 3.5 bug fix, and none if it is really 2 versions ahead of the 4 year old OS2.
Be assured that the Pocket PC team at Microsoft is diligently working on the next version of the Pocket PC. Issues like more wireless possibilities, security, user interaction, application compatibility, etc. All being looked over with a fine tooth comb. Microsoft has the advantage here because they are not playing catch-up with features, and because the Pocket PC has always been a fully 32bit OS, all of the compatibility issues Palm is having to contend with in OS5 are not nearly as much of a problem for Microsoft as they are for Palm. OS5 is Palm's transition OS, and that is a painful experience. Just look at Win95/98/ME.
Microsoft also has a tighter control over the hardware specs. This is great news for developers. They know a speaker is there. They know the device is running 240X320. They know there is a Soft Input Panel. They know RTF libraries will be there to use. They know a powerful communication manager is there. Palm on the other hand is actually encouraging diversity. Maybe 160X160, maybe 320X320, maybe 240X320. Maybe there is a SIP, maybe not. Might have a microphone. Might not. Speaker? Your guess is as good as mine. This causes more work for developers as they have to contend with so many possibilities.
Then there is the financial situation. When you look at Palm's financial statements from the day they went public in 2000 through today, they have lost millions of dollars. Their cash reserve is very low and they keep burning millions every month. The question is, not can they turn the company around, because I don't think they are too far gone to turn it around, but can they turn it around fast enough? Before their bank account looks like my checking account, they must get profitable and cash positive. Meanwhile, MS keeps raising the bar. Terminal Server support, network file share access, SmartPhone, etc. If Palm looks in their rear view mirror, there is a huge Mack truck bearing down on them, and the letters on the mirror read "Objects are even larger than they appear." Palm had better find that long skinny pedal on the right and apply significant pressure, or become roadkill.
